Anyone else feel like Jalopnik's coverage of the Model 3 has been unnecessarily dour? 

"dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter" (dsigned001) 04/03/2016 at 17:24 • Filed to: None

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Articles about how the 3 won’t save us from global warming, and about how Tesla won’t be able to meet orders, about how it will actually be $60k fully optioned, and about how they’re almost out of the windows for incentives.

As near as I can tell, the constant pessimism is maybe so that they can say “told ya so” if Tesla folds (like happened with Fisker). And I suppose I get that. What I don’t get is how it seems like some people want Tesla to fail.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter 04/03/2016 at 17:27

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Really? All I see is a lot of promotion from FP, expect for a SCATHING editorial about... the trunk.

Slant6 > dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter 04/03/2016 at 17:29

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Not that I want them to fail, I would love a Model S, but no one has ever done what they’re doing.

A very real chance they will fail. They’re just being realistic.

yamahog > dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter 04/03/2016 at 17:30

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Wasn’t the global warming one from Gawker?

SVTyler > yamahog 04/03/2016 at 17:34

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Giz I think, pretty sure it was an Alissa “Literally Hitler” Walker article given the subject.

dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter > yamahog 04/03/2016 at 17:35

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Giz, actually. But re-posted to Jalopnik.

dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter > Slant6 04/03/2016 at 17:42

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I totally agree that there’s a chance they will fail. But I feel like the criticisms have been weird. “Production won’t be able to keep up with demand!” That’s got to be the best major problem you could possibly have.

Most companies (that don’t fail immediately) fail right after a period of expansion, when they expand to meet demand, that then falls back to a “normal” level, and the company has no cash left, and suddenly burdensome operating costs. So, from that standpoint, this is indeed a really dangerous time for Tesla. But Musk, for all you might criticize him for, seems to understand at a very deep level a company’s need for cash flow.

So, I mean, yeah, I get the concerns, but maybe they don’t worry me to the same level.

dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 04/03/2016 at 17:43

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Haha, I think the trunk is the only truly bad thing I can see in this situation. Still can’t find a high res picture of the frunk though.

dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter > SVTyler 04/03/2016 at 17:44

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She and Maddie have the biggest figurative hard on for doom and gloom environmental stuff.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter 04/03/2016 at 17:46

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They gotta stop with that clickbait inflammatory cross-posting.

SVTyler > dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter 04/03/2016 at 17:51

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Which is a shame because there are some salient points to be made about energy usage and alternative fuel sources, but those two just go full Gawker and write the most alarmist, opinionated clickbait they can. Not that you expect any GM site besides Jalopnik to embody journalistic integrity but still...

iaintafraidofnoghost > dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter 04/03/2016 at 18:05

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Listing facts really isn’t being dour. No one is saying Tesla will fold, although they are hugely leveraged, which doesn’t bode well for any company. But as Amazon has proved time and time again, companies can operate with negative income as long as investor continue to buy what they are dishing.

Tesla faces three uphill battles though; auto maker competition, their tax credit running out (shouldn’t impact the S too much, but can definitely impact the 3), and the Gigafactory being timely with their milestones (they haven’t).

I don’t think the majority talking about these issues want Tesla to fail, but the reality is there. Tesla helps the industry as a whole move forward, but they aren’t doing well in terms of hitting their objectives. Luckily their stockholders don’t hold them to that high of a standard (as reflected in their stock price).

Vítor > dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter 04/03/2016 at 18:06

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Yep, but having a production unable to keep up with demand of a 35k car is much worse than having it with a close to 100k car like the Model S and X. Also in between the 2, 3 years that will take Tesla to deliver the Model 3 to most of the buyers companies like BMW or Mercedes will probably already have some fully eletric version of the 3-Series or C-Class which will bring attention of some of the buyers of more loaded Model 3s.

dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter > iaintafraidofnoghost 04/03/2016 at 18:20

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but they aren’t doing well in terms of hitting their objectives

This is where I disagree with you. Acura has spent YEARS developing the new NSX, and has gone through God knows how many redesigns in the process.

That they’ve delivered cars pretty much on time (delay of a year-ish) is insane. That they’ve been able to move cars as well as they have is insane. That the cars have build quality that’s even midpack is insane.

I think the part that we really disagree on is what it means to be “doing well.” I would say that the delays and other setbacks are pretty normal for the industry, and that Tesla has done a remarkably good job of keeping cash flow going, which is where small car manufacturers usually stumble. If you look at Chevy with the Volt — the difference between concept and delivery was massive, and perhaps more importantly, kind of a letdown. By comparison, Tesla has delivered two models that have been pretty much as advertised (though definitely more upmarket than initial predictions) in terms of excitement.

dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter > SVTyler 04/03/2016 at 18:21

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What about Lifehacker?

dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter > Vítor 04/03/2016 at 18:30

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I think the time scale is definitely something that is going to have Tesla worried (if it doesn’t already). But given the automakers’ track record so far, I don’t think anybody is going to beat the 3 to market by a significant margin. BMW seems to be the closest, as the i3 is pretty flippin sweet as it is, and moving from that to something fully electric doesn’t seem all that outlandish. But the i3 doesn’t hit the model 3's price point as it is, and BMW has several years of catching up to do with Tesla’s charging infrastructure.

GM continues to demonstrate the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Nissan doesn’t seem interested in competing with Tesla directly (though I suppose that could change).

Toyota is the other big question mark. They’ve been content to stick with hybrids, but haven’t made performance their main selling point, even in competing with the German luxury brands (though they certainly have several crazy fast models in the Lexus stable).

iaintafraidofnoghost > dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter 04/03/2016 at 18:47

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They haven’t been able to deliver any car on the delivery date they set.(a year and a half is substantial when you are a start up needing to hit sales).

They haven’t been able to hit sales targets as they’ve set.

Gigafactory is also way behind schedule (their life blood).

Etc. etc. etc.

keeping cash flow going

Uh... if you mean by continuing negative cash flow, as in keeping that going, then sure. Negative cash flow is very bad when you are missing targets . But too each their own.

My bird IS the word > dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter 04/03/2016 at 18:56

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I just don’t like Elon Musk. He comes off like a salesman rather than a businessman, and believe me, there is a big difference. I'm not sure his businessplans are grounded in reality is what I am trying to say.

SVTyler > dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter 04/03/2016 at 19:09

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Fair point, most of their stuff seems pretty objective just by virtue of being instructions or tips or whatever, which is nice because there’s no snark or soapboxing like every other site likes to shoehorn in.

dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter > SVTyler 04/03/2016 at 22:31

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I’m in favor of legislation to combat climate change, is the crazy part of it. Solar, wind, nuclear, bio-diesel : I like all of it.

What I don’t like nearly as much are mandatory public transportation, vilifying diesel and acting like a 20ft sea level change over centuries/millenia is going to have any impact at all on the global economy (changing rainfal patterns will however).

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter 04/03/2016 at 22:55

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Honda can take years on the NSX because it isn’t core to their business. it is because it isn’t core as to why the project was scrapped in 2009.

the reason is this becomes such a major deal is that your ROI needs to increase for every r&D dollar they are burning through. the longer the 3 takes to bring in cash the more is lost, due to inflation your $1.00 today needs to get at least $1.15 three years from now. This can be easily taken care of when dealing with luxury cars and profit margins are high, but with economy cars it becomes a major issue. “designed to a budget” exists for a reason and make investors nervous when ignored.

As a major selling point of the 3 is price any increase is going to be a PR hit.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter 04/03/2016 at 23:02

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i3 is already fully electric

dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter > My bird IS the word 04/03/2016 at 23:17

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I think he’s a weird hybrid actually. But in one very important way, I think that hybridisation has allowed Tesla to get as far as it has, when similar (or even significantly less ambitious) projects have tanked miserably. I don’t know if you remember back when Tesla was getting their big gov’t loan, and everyone was just dumbfounded that Tesla had gotten something like $500 million. Aptera tried to get like a third of that, but never did and went belly up. Tesla burned all of it. And not because it went to waste — that’s just what it takes to build a company from the ground up (car company, mind you).

The point is, starting a business takes a ton of cash. A TON OF CASH. And so the job of the CEO until the business is established is basically to be a salesman. And Musk has been incredibly successful at that. Between the government loan, the IPO, and now to a lesser extent the pre-orders, Musk has kept a pretty steady flow of cash in to the company.

dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 04/03/2016 at 23:27

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You’re right, but they also have the “range extender” option, and neither of of the two options even hits 200 miles.

My point was more that the current i3 isn’t a threat to Tesla, but whatever comes next could be.

My bird IS the word > dsigned001 - O.R.C. hunter 04/03/2016 at 23:28

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He is definetly an excellent salesman, and he very well could get by on that merit alone.

I wouldnt touch tesla stock with a ten-foot pole however. I doubt the company will still be around in 15 years. Its just an impression I get, don’t take it too seriously.